Monthly Newsletter – March 2025

Employment down at fastest rate for nearly four years.

Latest data pointed to a decrease in workforce numbers for the fourth successive month at mid-market companies in December. The substantial drop in headcounts came amid increasing signs of spare capacity and softer inflows of new work, alongside concerns about the impact of rising payroll costs. Service providers cut jobs more quickly than manufacturers in December. The overall rate of job shedding at mid-market firms was the strongest for nearly four years and exceeded that seen elsewhere across the UK private sector.

Behavioural Investing
As much as everyone would like to think that they are always rational and calm in all situations the reality is usually quite different. Every human being is driven by emotions and this can be more pronounced during times of stress which can lead to damaging outcomes when investing.

People can lose their self-control and be influenced by other biases during rising and falling markets which can lead to negative results over the longer-term. This is why a structured and disciplined approach is needed to ensure that you can achieve your goals rather than getting sidetracked unnecessarily.

By taking this approach and having regular reviews with your adviser you are far more likely to avoid the pitfalls and bad choices that would otherwise be easy to fall into.

Please see chart below which illustrates how easy it is to fall victim to poor investment decision making:

Many inexperienced investors would get carried away at the euphoria point and overestimate their abilities leading to catastrophic results. Conversely at the despondency point mistakes such as withdrawal all funds could be made when this would be statistically the best time to invest more funds.
By taking a disciplined approach, remaining calm and utilising regular investing to take advantage of pound cost averaging these risks can be mitigated leading to far greater chances of achieving your goals and objectives.

Darren Fuller – Clear Senior Paraplanner 

Luxury now has four legs!
For more than a decade in Chinese consumption, one of the main themes has been luxury. Chinese consumers now represent approximately a quarter of total global luxury spending, this is from spending nothing on luxury brands in 2000. But there has been a change in the last couple of years, luxury brands have started to struggle in China. It’s not that their consumers aren’t spending money, it’s just they are spending on different things.

Instead of Louis Vuitton bags, Hermes scarves, Rolex watches and Mercedes cars, the new middle class product line-up looks like this:

Source: Gambol Pet Group.

Although less glamorous, it is understandable.

When society starts to have an established middle class, consumptions move from goods to experiences and from conspicuous to comfortable. In particular, people start to buy pets and all things that accompany these furry friends. Medicine, insurance, toys, and of course pet food!

So it is no surprise that while Kering (who own Gucci, Saint Laurent etc) and LVMH (who own Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany & Co,etc.) saw their shares take a hit last year, Gambol Pet Food more than doubled!

Delicious diversification
Now what do these two characters have in common?

No, it’s not that Gary Lineker and George Fox (founder of the Quakers) were both born in Leicester, although they were, it’s that they both work for Pepsi.
This might be surprising as we most often think of Pepsi as either a worse or better alternative to Coca-Cola.
Both Pepsi and Coca-Cola have similar origins, both created by American drugstore owners in the late 1800s and they have competed since then as the drinks spread across the country and the world.
Coca-Cola has effectively won the cola wars, being the most popular soft drink on earth and Coca-Cola is the most understood word in the world after “OK”. As of 2024 Americans even drink more Dr Pepper than they do Pepsi!
However, this is where it gets interesting in investments terms. Unlike Coca-Cola which is all about drinks, Pepsi isn’t.

It owns Walkers (hence Gary), and Quaker Oats, Doritos, Tropicana and the Starbucks cold coffees. Also, dozens of other brands which are recognisable in Mexico, South Africa and Indonesia.
In the last twelve months, Coca-Cola made sales of about $45 billion, PepsiCo doubled that. So, although Coca-Cola does one thing better than anyone else, PepsiCo does a lot of things better than most.

If you invested $100 into both companies 30 years ago, your Coca-Cola shares would be worth just over $1000, but your PepsiCo shares would be over $1800.

Source: FactSet. Chart shows Total Returns, past performance is not a guide to future returns, 01/01/1995 to 01/01/2025

 Rate cuts help boost consumer confidence in February.

• Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) rises from one year low
• Prospects for lower interest rates help boost future sentiment and spending intentions
• Job insecurity persists.