Pension Tax-Free Cash

A new study from Hargreaves Lansdown has revealed that 38% of over 55’s have no plans for the tax-free cash portion of their pension. The research further indicated that 14% of the people surveyed said that they planned to put the funds into cash savings. This could be potentially harmful to long-term retirement outcomes as the funds would no longer be invested and as such be eroded by the effect of inflation.

Many modern pensions allow for phased drawdown which means that you have the ability to take portions of your tax-free cash as and when needed or as a regular income which can be useful if the whole amount is not immediately required. This is tax-efficient and allows time for further retirement planning.
At present pensions are outside of the estate for inheritance tax (IHT) purposes but will be included from April 2027. This means that consideration can be given to using the tax-free cash element from your pension in order to reduce your IHT liability. One way of achieving this would be to invest this into a business relief qualifying investment service. Please see below for an example of this:

*The above example only considers the IHT due on the unspent pension and not any other assets that may form part of the estate.

The above is an example only and does not constitute advice which would have to be based on individual circumstances and objectives. If you would like to discuss further, please contact the office.

Darren Fuller – Clear Senior Paraplanner

Football & sticker crazy!

So WORLD CUP FEVER is sweeping many offices!

There are Sweepstakes, wall charts, rivalry between England and Scottish offices, it’s all kicking off!
But, what has REALLY got some teams going, is this year’s Panini sticker album:

Buy Panini - World Cup 2026 Sticker Album (PAN2943)

Source:Panini UK

Time spent hunting for rare opportunities, trading with other teams (or children), plus the nostalgia factor for a team who had spent their youth sticking, rather than kicking!
As this is thrilling and the chase is real, an interesting analysis can be done.
The 2026 Panini FIFA World Cup sticker album is the biggest in history. The album includes a whopping 980 stickers, representing the 48 teams that will be playing.
Now, how much might it cost you to complete the sticker book? In an ideal world, you’d buy 140 packs, with 7 stickers to a pack, and without duplicates – it would cost £175.
However, there is a reason that Panini can double it’s annual sales in a World Cup year, it’s on course to make $1.5 billion from sales this summer, and that’s just on the stickers.
The numbers are in Panini’s favour:

Source: 7IM

After buying 700 stickers, you’re around 50% complete. But now it gets harder, not because of bad luck, but because of basic maths; The Law of Diminishing Returns:

Stage 1. Early packs deliver rapid progress – almost every sticker is new.
Stage 2. Each new pack has a few stickers you’ve already got. You start seeing familiar faces e.g. Jeremy Doku and Declan Rice.
Stage 3. You should stop buying packs once you’re around 90% complete (around 300 packs, so £375 spent). If you need 50 stickers to complete the book, you’d have to buy 600 packs of stickers. Time to start swapping!
There is, of course, an investment analogy here:
Some investors think that continually adding stocks or funds to their portfolios increases diversification. But there is a sweet spot, like sticker collecting. For a given allocation (say, UK Equity), once you’ve got 4 funds, adding any more doesn’t help. Risk doesn’t reduce, and returns don’t increase.
Changing the portfolio requires swapping, not buying (although less frequently than with stickers!

Source:7IM

Household spending sentiment worsens as job security deteriorates.

S&P Global Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) survey has collected monthly data since 2009. It is based on a panel of 1500 UK households. The headline index is a combination of gauges tracking household financial wellbeing, labour market conditions, household spending, savings and debt.
The index held steady in June with readings similar to those seen in April and May, it rounded off the second quarter as the most downbeat since Q3 in 2023. The latest data was collected between 4^th and 8^th June.

Source: S&P Global.

An Englishman’s home is his castle.

Source:Reddit

The saying has been around for centuries, but, unfortunately, quite a lot of the homes we have are centuries old too, although not castles!
38% of the UK’s housing stock was built before 1946 – in Europe it’s under 20%.
Amongst the variety of reasons for why we are on our seventh PM in a decade, the core problem remains unchanged: Growth.
Homes are part of the problem, but could also be the solution.
Building new homes creates lots of jobs in planning, materials and construction – as well as all the secondary industries (transport/cafes/hotels) around it. It also makes an economy more flexible, allowing people to move around.
On the other hand, repairing doesn’t have the same effect. If you have a decorator around the benefits do not go further than you having an updated living room. The UK has gone down the repairs route for the past decade spending 40% more on repairs and maintenance than in 2016. This has become more acute since Covid. The spend on new builds is the same as ten years ago.

UK spending on housing (public and private)

Source: ONS

In the UK it’s almost a 50/50 split between new and old spending. For comparison, in Europe it’s 60/40 in favour of new builds, in the US it’s 70/30, and in most Emerging Markets, it’s 80/20.
We appear to be fixing castles and not building them.

But by trying to shift that percentage just a few points in the right direction could help the growth problem.
Some of this is down to rising interest rates. New buyers are unable to get the mortgages they could when rates were at zero. Making matters worse is the stamp duty, which is a tax seen as a disincentive, leading to the question-

“Why don’t we save the stamp duty and the stress and just repaint/renovate/do an extension?”

It’s anybody’s guess what decisions the new PM, Andy Burnham, will prioritise, but generating growth must be high on the agenda. Targeting stamp duty would be obvious no matter what rates do.
Build more castles …

Source:7IM

Updates:
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15 million people not saving enough for retirement, warns Pensions Commission

A landmark report from the Government-backed Pensions Commission has warned that millions of people across Britain are heading towards a retirement savings “cliff edge”, with around 15 million people currently not saving enough for later life. Without action, this figure could rise to 19 million.

The Commission, which was re-established in 2025, said low and middle earners, women and the self-employed are most at risk. An ageing population is adding further pressure, with the number of people over 65 expected to rise significantly over the coming decades.

Although automatic enrolment has increased pension participation, the report found many people are only saving the minimum contribution levels, which may not provide adequate retirement income. Around 45% of working-age adults are not paying into a pension at all, including millions who are employed but do not qualify for automatic enrolment because of age or earnings thresholds.

The Commission also raised concerns that minimum pension contribution rates are increasingly viewed as the “normal” level of saving rather than a starting point. Higher earners are generally benefiting more from additional employer contributions, while many lower earners have little else to fall back on.

The report highlighted a particularly concerning picture for the self-employed, with only around 4% regularly saving into pensions. Industry experts said more flexible savings solutions and systems similar to automatic enrolment may be needed to improve participation among self-employed workers.

There were also warnings around pension engagement more broadly. While automatic enrolment has helped bring people into pension saving, many remain disengaged and are not increasing contributions or reviewing whether they are on track for retirement.

The Commission also pointed to significant gender inequalities. Women continue to build up much lower pension wealth than men due to lower average earnings, part-time working, career breaks and caring responsibilities. The UK currently has one of the largest gender pension gaps in the OECD – The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Another area of concern was how people are accessing pensions following the introduction of Pension Freedoms. The report found many savers are withdrawing pension money too early or taking full cash withdrawals from smaller pension pots. Around half of all pension pots accessed are fully withdrawn, often to fund major purchases such as holidays, cars or home improvements, potentially increasing the risk of running out of money later in retirement.

Industry experts said there is a growing gap between perception and reality, with many people believing they are saving adequately simply because they are enrolled into a pension. However, minimum contribution levels alone may not deliver the retirement outcomes many expect.

The Commission will now spend the next year gathering views before publishing final recommendations in 2027, with possible reforms expected around automatic enrolment, contribution levels, self-employed saving and improving long-term pension engagement.

Anna Griffiths – Clear Technical Manager.

Bookshops aren’t about the books

Remember this film?

TikTok trend sparks revival at 'Hugh Grant's Notting Hill bookshop'

Source: Notting Hill, 1999

At the same time as Notting Hill was released in cinemas, Amazon was launching in the UK. So, game over for independent bookshops and their handsome, charming but clumsy, oh-so-British owners?! Some would say – “Big bad wolf comes to town = no more town”. Online arrived. Bookshops die. The end.
And initially that is what happened. Big brands like Borders died quickly, disappearing entirely less than a decade after Amazon arrived. Half of Notting Hill-style independent bookshops closed by 2016 – no more town.

Except.

Source: 7IM/ https://booksellers.org.uk/

The downward trend stopped in 2016.
In 2026, we’re back to well more than a thousand independent bookshops. Companies like Waterstones have been opening new shops too, with more to come in 2026. The same pattern happened in the US too.
This isn’t people rejecting Amazon – their latest results suggest they’re doing ok.

Bookshops are not outcompeting Amazon, but they worked out what their purpose is, and it’s not about book delivery or people getting the specific book they want as soon as possible – that’s the job of Amazon.
Bookshops are offering something a delivery service can’t – CONNECTION.

Browsing aimlessly. Coming out with a recommendation from someone you’ve never met. Finding an old favourite you weren’t looking for. Meeting a famous and beautiful American film star and falling in love … you know, connection.

Hiking instead of driving. Cooking instead of ordering. Calling instead of messaging. And so, gradually, bookshops are creeping back onto high streets – often supported by locals who want a bookshop. This analogy maps perfectly onto fears around AI and jobs. A job isn’t just a list of tasks.

If a bookshop’s sole job was to deliver books, we’d have none left. The economics don’t work vs. Amazon. But the social psychology of a bookshop? That’s worth something more than an anonymous package through your letterbox.

Source: 7IM

S&P Global UK Sentiment Index (CSI)

Household sentiment is at it’s lowest since July 2023 as savings have come under increasing
pressure.

Financial strain on households expected to increase in the next 12 months.
Job insecurity greatest since March 2023.
Savings depleted at most pronounced rate in nearly three years.

UK households have grown gloomier in May, according to the S&P Global UK… | Chris Williamson

This survey has been collected monthly since 2009 and is based on a panel of 1,500 UK households. It is a combination of tracking household financial wellbeing, labour market conditions, household spending, saving and debt. Sentiment was the most downbeat since July 2023 and has now fallen for a third consecutive month.

Keep cool and carry on

Have you been thinking about air conditioning this week?
Picture the scene in every single one of the 15% of UK households who have installed air-con in the last five years:

Smug Face Emoticon Stock Illustrations ...

Source iStock

4 million UK homes are now with air-conditioning of some kind and based on conversations that is only going to go up. However, currently the UK grid isn’t built for it.
The UK demand for electricity usually does the opposite of the temperature – the further we are from Christmas, the less power we use. In July, a sunny and warm month, demand is a third less than cold, dark January. On average each person in the UK uses ~4,500 kWh electricity per year.

Sources: UK, NESO, Spain, REE, Singapore, EMA

In Spain however, they have the same demand for power in the cold winter months, but then a spike during the summer months as the air-con use rises. 41% of Spanish households have air-conditioning, although this percentage rises in southern cities. The average Spaniard uses 10% more electricity per year, at ~5,100 kWh. Spain shows the way we might be going.

Then there’s Singapore, which has an average temperature of 28 degrees, with almost no
variation. The entire economy is built on air-conditioning, demand is constant. The average Singaporean uses ~10,000 kWh.

Now, we might not be turning into Singapore, but we might get a little more Mediterranean. If so, the investment required would be huge.

It’s not just the overall energy that we’d need to generate, but the beefing up of the grid too. If every house on the street wants a bit more electricity at the same time, that’s a BIG problem.
Planned grid upgrades are for £54 billion to be spent over the next 5 years, based on the existing UK demand curve. A few more weeks like this and that number’s going to have to jump up sharply …

Source: 7IM

Meet BOB

Bob is the AI robotic arm, hired about 2 years ago by the recycling centre in Southwark to help sort aluminium alongside the existing (human) workers. A really interesting example of how AI and humans interact – and it raises a few interesting things to think about.

People don’t mind giving up horrible tasks …

Bob’s job isn’t pretty. He separates foil pouches from pure aluminium, picking out half full pet food packets from half empty beer cans, 24 hours a day. Mucky and boring. The people who previously did that job have moved to catching the odd exception Bob missed. They are much happier, as they are working in an area that’s cleaner and quieter, and the quality of the output has soared. Win-win.

… because the task is not the job

Since Bob has joined, more people work in the recycling plant than before. Southwark only recycles 30% of its waste. The “job” is to get that higher – so there’s plenty of work to go around.

“Work” changes

150 years ago, councils didn’t collect waste and 50 years ago, they shovelled it into holes in the ground! Today, there’s a recycling centre and all of the jobs that come with it from sorting to logistics for bin collections to , who would have thought it, tour guides!

There was a study a few years ago, which found that 60% of the US population in 2018 were doing jobs which didn’t exist in 1940.

Source: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30389/w30389.pdf

This is the best bit, examples of the new jobs added, by decade …

We wonder what those entries for 2030 or 2050 will look like, they certainly wont be blank.

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Investments For Children or Grandchildren

Many people, who can, would like to give their children or grandchildren a better start in life. There are several options available and these can be used in isolation or together as part of a holistic strategy.

Saving for a child’s future early gives investments time to grow, turning small, regular contributions or individual lump sums into a meaningful fund. It’s not just for parents, family and friends can all contribute toward future milestones like education, a first home, or buying a car. Please see illustration below for reasons why people save for children/grandchildren’s future:

Three common options:

1. Junior ISA (JISA)
A tax-free savings and investment account with a £9,000 annual limit. Funds are locked until age 18, allowing for long-term growth. Contributing the full amount annually from birth could grow to around £260,000 by 18 (assuming 5% growth, excluding fees and inflation).

2. Pension
A pension for children, with contributions up to £2,880 annually, topped up to £3,600 with tax relief. Starting early can be powerful—this could grow to ~£100,000 by age 18 and potentially ~£1 million by retirement if left untouched. Funds are inaccessible until pension age.

3. Trusts
Trust investments can be set up for children or grandchildren and place money or assets into a trust managed by trustees on the child’s behalf, with a Bare Trust being one of the simplest forms where the child is the beneficiary from the outset. The main advantages are flexibility over amounts that can be contributed, control over investment decisions (especially useful for grandparents), and potential tax and inheritance planning benefits, as assets may fall outside the donor’s estate. However, there are drawbacks: the child usually gains full control at age 18 which may not align with the donor’s wishes; tax rules can be complex and once assets are placed in trust, they are generally irrevocable, meaning the donor cannot take them back.

If you would like to give your child or grandchild a better start in life, please contact the office to arrange an appointment to discuss your available options.

Darren Fuller – Clear Senior Paraplanner

TYE & TACO

Was your TYE (Tax Year End) much like your NYE (New Year’s End)? Fireworks, party, Jools Holland on TV?

Probably not …
But, interestingly, in the rest of the world, the end of the tax year DOES align with the end of the calendar year. That is apart from Australia and New Zealand who end their tax year at the end of June – their winter. Obviously avoiding the BBQ season!!

So why is the UK so different? What’s so special about 6^th April starting things off?
In the Middle Ages, New Year fell on the 25^th March. That marked the start of the planting season, and sat exactly nine months before Christmas. Year-end and tax-year end lined up neatly.

But then, in 1752, the UK adopted the Gregorian calendar which moved New Year to the 1^st January and (for complicated mathematical reasons) 11 days vanished altogether! This was a problem for the government just coming out of an expensive foreign war, it could not afford to lose 11 days of tax revenue. To maximise the tax take, 25^th March became 6^th April.

So the answer is a mixture of accident, fudging, and government greed (that’s basically all of history, to be fair). Now the pressure is off for about 11 months.

TACO – Spot the pattern
TACO-Trump Always Chickens Out.

With the Tax Year End at fever pitch, you might have missed the more short-term rhythm that’s developed since the US-Iran conflict began, explained in the following graphs:
This chart shows the daily moves in the S&P (Standard & Poors) 500 since the first bombs dropped. Can you see the rhythm?

Source: FactSet/7IM. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Easier to spot…same chart, but grey bars are the weekends.

Source: FactSet/7IM. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Easier still, the average return by day of the week over the past five weeks:

Source: FactSet/7IM. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. End date 02/04/26

Signs of progress/de-escalation on Monday, hope fades throughout the week, and then stress over the weekend. Rhythm on repeat.

It’s not advisable to set your clock by it, but something worth watching over the next month or so.
Source: 7IM

GB Jobs

Hiring activity deteriorates only slightly in March.

Marginal falls in permanent placements and slower drop in temp billings.
Demand for staff falls at softest pace in ten months.
Rates of pay growth ease amid steeper upturn in staff availability.

Permanent Placements Index
Temporary Billings Index

Source: REC/KPMG

Who makes money?

Recently the Bank of England announced what would be on the next series of banknotes.
Nature won the public vote over the other categories, so King Charles will be backed by wildlife after the next vote to decide which animals.

Source: The Bank of England

But did you know that not every pound printed will adopt the new design. Because, yet again, the UK has a wonderfully weird way of doing things!

In most countries, there’s one currency, printed by one central bank, except Hong Kong and Macau who have an arrangement with China. In England and Wales, that is true – only the Bank of England issues banknotes. But in Scotland and Northern Ireland, several commercial (i.e. high street) banks print pound sterling notes with their own designs and logos. This is how money used to work.

Historically, banknotes were originally just a promise to pay, backed by the issuing bank’s reputation and balance sheet. But by the mid‑1800s, England had hundreds of private banks – many were poorly funded, often failing, and regularly undermining confidence. This is not ideal if you’re trying to finance an Industrial Revolution!
So Parliament stepped in. The Bank Charter Act of 1844 began the very long process of centralising note issuance under the Bank of England.

However, Scotland and Northern Ireland were treated differently as their banking systems were judged to be more stable due to fewer banks, better capitalised, and less prone to collapse.
Surprisingly, more than 150 years later, there are still six issuers outside the Bank of England,who are quite literally making money:

Royal Bank of Scotland,
Bank of Scotland,
Clydesdale Bank,
Bank of Ireland,
Ulster Bank,
and interestingly …Danske Bank.

Yes… A publicly listed Danish bank printing ten and twenty pound sterling banknotes. Only in Britain!

Source: Danske Bank

Danske Bank bought the Northern Bank in 2005 and in 2013 changed the branding. The notes are backed by assets held at the Bank of England and although not technically “legal tender” anywhere in the UK, they are legal currency in Northern Ireland and are generally accepted across the UK.
Source:7IM

Fascinating financial facts:

The term BANKRUPT comes from the Latin bancus (bench) and ruptus (broken). This refers to the practice of breaking a money changer’s bench when they could not re-pay their debts!

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and if you work, have a great break!

Why investing early can make a real difference

As the end of the tax year approaches, it’s a good time to check whether you’ve made full use of your ISA allowance for 2025/26. But it’s just as important to look ahead—because starting early in the new tax year can make a meaningful difference to your long-term investments.
One of the biggest advantages you can give your money is time. The longer your investments are in place, the more opportunity they have to grow. While many people wait until the end of the tax year to use their ISA allowance, investing earlier can significantly improve your overall returns.

Making the most of your ISA allowance
You can currently invest up to £20,000 each tax year into an ISA, where any growth is free from income tax and capital gains tax.
If you regularly use your full allowance, and invest at the start of the tax year rather than the end, this gives your money more time to benefit from potential growth.
As one tax year ends and another begins, it’s worth thinking about how you can take advantage of your new allowance as early as possible.
If you have a Flexible ISA, you may also have the option to withdraw money if needed for short-term expenses, while still retaining your allowance (as long as it’s replaced within the rules).

Keeping things simple
If you have multiple ISAs with different providers, bringing them together into one place can make things easier to manage. It can also help reduce costs, simplify paperwork, and make things more straightforward for your family in the future.

More time for growth
The earlier you invest, the longer your money has to grow in a tax-efficient environment.
For example, investing £20,000 each year at the start of the tax year over six years could result in noticeably higher returns compared to investing at the end of each year. Assuming 6% annual growth, this could mean over £8,000 more in your ISA after six years, please see the table below.

*Calculated from 6^th April 2020 to 5^th April 2026

Planning for the future
These benefits don’t just apply to your own savings. If you’re investing for children or grandchildren, using a Junior ISA (JISA) early in the tax year can give their savings even more time to grow—helping to build a valuable financial head start for the future.

Looking ahead
While it’s important to review your current ISA usage before the tax year ends, planning ahead can be just as valuable. By investing early in the new tax year, you can give your money the best chance to grow and make the most of the tax advantages available to you.
If you’d like help making the most of your ISA allowance or planning your investments, please get in touch.

Anna Griffiths – Clear Technical Manager

All your silver eggs in one basket.

We often talk about diversification, particularly when things get a little concentrated, and speculative. As humans we love a speculative trade; from crypto currencies to tulips to even Pokémon cards…

Source: BBC News / Hansons Auctioneers

These kinds of markets are usually driven by a collective frenzy – a bit of fear, a bit of greed and a lot of Fear Of Missing Out, usually requiring lots of investors to buy into the story.

But what about when there isn’t lots of investors but rather just one? Or brothers to be more precise.
Enter the Hunt brothers who, in 1980, decided the best way to make money from the silver market was to control it!
The brothers took advantage of the poorly governed futures market, so by early 1980 they controlled over 100 million ounces of silver… which is roughly a third of the world’s supply not held by governments. This resulted in the price of silver increasing up 700% due to their buying frenzy, going from $6 per ounce in early 1979 to almost $50 by January 1980.

This did not make a favorable impression on Tiffany & Co, they published this ad:

TCH: Silver Thursday
Source: The New York Times, March 26 1980

Not too long after this Tiffany & Co. advert, the regulators brought in the “Silver Rule 7”, restricting the ability for people to purchase significant volumes of silver through excessive borrowing – the Hunt brothers were in trouble.
Shortly after the implementation of this rule, the silver market suffered a brutal collapse that later became known as
Silver Thursday. The new rules led to forced selling by the Hunt brothers, sending prices down by more than 50% in just four days. For context, silver prices wouldn’t reach those heady highs again until 2025!

As prices dropped, the Hunt brothers were faced with escalating margin calls, including a $100 million demand they simply couldn’t meet, so they were left needing a bailout.
Interestingly, This story of the Hunt brothers inspired the film Trading Places, but writers thought orange juice would be funnier than silver!
The story is a cautionary tale of concentration risk – even when investors feel like they’re in control, the markets have a way of showing they aren’t. Diversification might not be as exciting on the way up, but it can be a relief on the way down.

Source:7iM

Don’t miss the market

Market madness in the middle of tax year end chaos.

When It Rains It Pours GIFs | Tenor
Source: Garfield and Friends

Mmmm……..

There is a “don’t panic” perspective.
Following a weekend of headlines and a terrible night in Asian markets, the FTSE 100 was down nearly 3% on Monday.

Then Donald Trump spoke and so, before we had even reached lunchtime, the market had turned positive for the day, and spent the rest of the afternoon acting as if nothing had happened:

Source: FactSet/7IM. Past performance is not a guide to the future.

Two weeks ago, something similar happened in South Korea. On 4^th March 2026, the South Korean stock market fell 12%, the worst day in the last twenty years. On 5^th March 2026, the same market rose 10%, the second best day in the last twenty years.

The following graph is a reminder that markets mostly tick along, with a few big positive days and a few big negative days.

Source: FactSet/7IM. Past performance is not a guide to the future.

Missing those few key days in the market can absolutely ruin your long-term returns.

The FTSE 100 has had an annualised return of 6.7% over the past 20 years. £10k would have turned into £39k.
Miss the best FIVE days and that turns into a 4.7% annualised return. 2% less PER year – which means £10k would have become £26k.
Miss the best 30 days (one month out of twenty years!) and you lose money! £10k becomes £9k!

The main thing that the chart doesn’t show is that most of the time, the big positive days come hot on the heels of the bad days. Just when you’re feeling most concerned is when things are likely to turn around.

30 of the BEST 40 days come within two weeks of one of the worst 40 days!
10 of the 40 BEST days come the DAY AFTER one of the worst 40 days!

Sell in haste, repent at leisure … much better not to sell in the first place.

Location, location, location

An essential commodity. A narrow stretch of water, geography turned into a weapon. We are not talking about the Middle East today, we are referring to Ancient Greece.
The Dardanelles Strait separates Europe from Asia. It was called the Hellespont by the Athenians and they relied on the waterway for supplies of grain. If this strait was closed, Athens would struggle. But in the Peloponnesian War, Sparta did just that.
There was plenty of grain waiting in the Black Sea. But Athens couldn’t get it … ultimately, they were forced to surrender.
Despite the advances in modern technology, the world is just as susceptible as ever to geographical constraints as it was three millennia ago.

Remember this from five years ago?

Biggest Ships Jammed the Suez Canal ...
Source: NY Times

So having lots of something is great but if it’s in the wrong place it’s the same as having none!
Here is an example as to why location matters.

Natural Gas in the US vs Europe. Two things matter here.
- The first is that Europe relies on Middle Eastern gas (as we’re seeing right now).
- The second is that the US has limited ability to export its excess natural gas (not enough pipes!).

.Location matters. So, you get completely different price fluctuations.

Source: Bloomberg Opinion

Gold. Or last year, as Trump announced tariffs on metals, gold in New York became worth more than gold in London – some investors started loading up planes to take advantage.
Timber. Most niche of all – wood. In 2017, this guy turned up in the forests of Germany, Austria and Czechia.

Dendroctonus micans - Wikipedia
Source: Wikimedia Commons

The European Spruce Bark beetle attacked roughly 10% of the spruce trees in Europe. Foresters cut the trees down quickly to prevent rot, massively increasing supply. So for the next two years, the price of wood fell by 40% … in Europe. In North America, beetle free, log cabins stayed expensive!

Commodities don’t price based on what exists. They price based on what can move.

In 404 BC, the grain started flowing as soon as Sparta defeated Athens* and the Hellespont reopened.
And today, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the oil and gas and fertiliser is sitting there ready to go.
* Athens and Sparta only signed a peace treaty in 1996 to officially end the Peloponnesian war.

We are very pleased to advise we have recently added more approved therapists to work with our charity. We are now working with 22 therapists and are funding or have funded 39 clients.
If you wish to help the charity with its work, please donate at:

https://www.justgiving.com/charity/clearminds

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Long-Term Financial Goals and Stress.

Are your long-term financial goals such as being able to retire comfortably and preparing for later life causing you stress? If so, you are not alone. According to the Fidelity’s Global Sentiment Survey only 29% of people feel confident about being able to retire comfortably and only 31% feel well prepared for later life.

Please see charts below from the survey:

Whilst the majority of people were confident in their ability to meet their short-term commitments, when it comes to longer term goals, they are far less confident.

How can these issues be addressed?
There are various ways in which these issues can be addressed such as employers providing wellness support and information. This may not be feasible for a lot of employers though, so perhaps the best way to improve outcomes, lower stress and achieve your long-term goals is through financial advice; The benefits of which are as follows:

Personalised retirement income projections – Cashflow forecasting.
Structured savings and investment strategies.
Tax-efficient planning approaches.
Regular reviews to ensure the best possible outcomes.
Improved clarity and reduced financial stress so that you can enjoy your life without additional worries.

If you have any concerns or worry in this regard, please contact the office for further advice.
Darren Fuller – Clear Senior Paraplanner

The Olympic IPhone Strategy

iPhone 17 Pro, 17 Pro Max Rumoured To ...

A friend decided to skip upgrading her iPhone to the15 two years ago. Last year she did the same with the 16. This year, however, bad battery life finally defeated her and so she switched to the 17.

Apple released its results last month, and the numbers were huge. The company made $85 billion from iPhones in October, November and December alone — and still had enough spare cash to hand $32 billion back to shareholders. That’s roughly the market value of Vodafone… or the total budget for yet another re‑imagined version of HS2! This leaves us wondering why this quarter was so profitable?

For years there has been a big behavioral shift that Apple has been fighting – everyone had stopped upgrading their phones regularly. In the early iPhone era, nobody really knew how long a smartphone should last. During the mid 2010’s turning up with an iPhone 5 while everyone else had an iPhone 7 was a serious source of social shame. But then society calmed down and decided 3 to 4 years was fine.

Source: sellcell.com

Also in 2025, it seems enough people finally hit the “cracked screen + dying battery + emotional readiness” combination to lift Apple’s iPhone numbers again, Of course, some of this demand might be due to people becoming sophisticated photographers and needing the extra lens!

This trend seems an excellent way to bring investing to life:

So what would have happened if you’d bought Apple shares instead of an iPhone – bought the orchard, instead of the fruit.

	iPhone cost at launch	Gain in shares to 31/12/2025
2013	£549	£10,527
2015	£619	£6,550
2017	£999	£6,055
2019	£1,049	£4,819
2021	£949	£1,767
2023	£999	£1,402
2025	£799	£878

Source: Apple/Factset/7IM, all in GBP

If you’d have bought an iPhone every two years since 2013, you’d have given £6,000 to Apple. And you’d have a nice shiny iPhone 17 to show for it today. –Source: x.com

If you’d invested the same amount in Apple shares, on the day the phone was released, you’d have £32,000, but you’d have had no phone for over a decade.

Middle ground? Going with a 4-year upgrade cycle – think upgrading in time for each Winter Olympics – and then investing the “missed” phone’s value in Apple shares? You’d have put £3,300 in Apple’s pocket and you’d have a shiny new iPhone 17 today. But you’d have invested the remaining £2,700 and have turned it into £12,700 today …
Source 7IM@7am

22^nd Century Debt

Corporate bond markets are usually seen to be boring, but something noteworthy happened last month – Alphabet (Google) issued a 100-year bond denominated in pounds sterling, no less. Go Team GB!

Source: Copilot

A 100-year bond is something to get your head round. Buying it means you’re lending money which you’ll get paid back in 2126 … no matter how well you look after yourself, exercise and diet, you certainly won’t be collecting!

Actually, it turns out that the UK is the perfect place to find a buyer. The rules and regulations here mean that insurance companies and pension funds have an almost insatiable appetite for long-term assets to meet their long-term liabilities. So, Alphabet has come to the right place.

Assuming you want to buy the bond, an important question crops up. Will the company you’re lending to be around in 100 years to pay you (or your descendants/pension firm) back? Predicting the future over any time period is difficult. We’re 37 years on from Back to the Future II and we still aren’t using hoverboards …

Back to the Future II: Predictions the movie made and whether they were accurate - ABC News

Source: Back to the Future II

A different and easier question to answer is who was the Google of 1926? Who might possibly have issued a 100-year bond, given what we knew about them at the time?

In 1926, some of America’s most dominant companies were the likes of Coca-Cola, IBM and Ford, who incidentally issued it’s own 100 year bond in 2021. Decent businesses, strong growth prospects, brand names. If you had lent them money for 100 years, you’d be happily collecting your investment this year.

On the other hand, what if you’d picked wrong and lent money to one of these?

Radio Company of America. The original tech stock. At the cutting edge of communication for decades. But not ten decades – it was broken up in 1980.
Woolworths. The original retailing giant, on high streets around the world. But the US original dissolved in 1997, and the UK arm failed in 2008.
Sears, Roebuck & Co. Invented catalogue shopping and became one of America’s largest and most innovative employers for most of the twentieth century. It made it for 92 years after 1926, before going bust in 2018. “Almost a century” doesn’t get you paid though!

One hundred years is a long time. And nothing is certain.

Final fact – did you know that of the 195 countries in the world today, according to the United Nations definitions and dates 135 of them are less than 100 years old!

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Investment Outlook 2026

Markets in 2025 have been shaped by heightened political uncertainty, both in Europe and the US. Budget pressures in France and the UK, alongside shifts in US trade policy and tariffs, have contributed to volatility.
Bond markets have also been unsettled, reflecting concerns over expanding fiscal deficits in the US, UK and Japan. Challenges to the independence of the US Federal Reserve have further dented confidence in US assets, particularly the dollar, while geopolitical tensions have remained a persistent backdrop.

These factors have driven alternating periods of ‘risk-on’ and ‘risk-off’ sentiment. Nevertheless, overall investment returns in 2025 have been strong, underpinned by solid earnings growth, easing interest rates and resilient consumer demand supported by robust labour markets. As a result, the OECD forecasts global growth of 2.9% in 2026.

Caution remains warranted. Consumer confidence is subdued, corporate guidance is tentative, and capital expenditure outside AI remains constrained, reflecting political uncertainty and early signs of softer economic data. While equity markets may continue to progress, elevated valuations leave them vulnerable to negative growth surprises.

Looking ahead to 2026, Europe and emerging markets are areas of particular interest. Germany’s defence and infrastructure investment represents a structural boost for the European economy, supporting consumers and strengthening the euro. European equities have delivered strong sterling returns, outperforming the US market this year.

In China, demand-focused policies, improved trade relations with the US and stronger market governance have supported performance and may prompt investors to reassess low allocations. Emerging markets more broadly continue to benefit from favorable economic conditions and strong public finances, supporting currencies and returns.

In fixed income, credit fundamentals remain sound and interest rates are expected to ease further. However, limited compensation for credit risk leaves markets vulnerable to future stress. Sovereign bonds also carry risks amid persistent fiscal deficits and sticky inflation.

In summary, while we remain constructive on the outlook for returns, expectations are more measured. Volatility is likely to persist, making diversification and active management increasingly important.

Anna Griffiths – Clear Technical Manager

FTSE 10.000

Big round numbers fit in our brains and we remember them.
If you ask someone to guess the price of a car, the width of the English Channel, or the weight of an elephant their first thought will be a round number which they’ll then work backwards from “£20,000” or “20 miles” or “5,000 kilos”. Like all good psychological phenomena, you can see round-number bias rear its head in investing. Those numbers just get our attention.

Now, there’s a decent chance that by the end of this week, the FTSE will have squared itself.
By which we mean the FTSE 100 index will have reached a level of 10,000!

Source: FactSet. Past performance is not a guide to the future.

But the “number” of the index – round or otherwise – is entirely arbitrary! Its importance lives in our brains!
In 1984 the FTSE 100 started with a value of 1,000. The midcap FTSE 250 began in 1992 at a level of 2,403. The US index – the S&P 500 –(Standard & Poors) started in 1957 with a value of 44.06. Comparisons don’t mean anything when the starting point is that random.

Also, if you look at the chart above, you’ll notice that the numbers don’t stop. The larger the index gets, the smaller a percentage gain needed to hit a new “important” level. Once we pass 10,000, we’ll be just 10% away from 11,000. And after that, just 9% away from 12,000.

But if you want to sound smart, don’t use round numbers.

When Mount Everest was measured for the first time, it came in at 29,000 ft exactly. So the surveyors said it was 29,002 feet, to convince the public they had bothered to do the job!
So, if you want everyone to believe you’re an intelligent and precise large mammal appraiser, make sure your elephant estimate is something like 3,567.52 kilos … It works, even if you’re wrong!

Source:7IM

Robot Psychology

There are already more than 5 million industrial robots hard at work around the world (not including Siri, smart washing machines or driverless cars).
But countries are adopting robots at different paces. China, Japan and South Korea account for two thirds of all robots built every year:

Source: AI Index Report (2025)

Economists will tell you that the reason is because there is huge demographic problem in those countries, which are aging faster than most other nations.

Source: Our World in Data

Robots are a helpful solution when the number of retirees starts to overwhelm the number of people still working. But another angle is Social psychology.
Europe and the US, are just not that comfortable with robots. In a recent survey about attitudes to robots, people were asked how happy they’d be with robots being involved in everyday social tasks like cooking, elderly caregiving and medical care. Just 26% of Americans (and 29% of Brits) said they would be ok with robots doing those tasks, compared to nearly 60% of Chinese respondents.

Why could that be?

This is just a thought but could the fact that Arnie and the rest of the android assassins didn’t make it to China until the mid-2000’s (along with Blade Runner and a host of other robot bad guys …) have something to do with our negative view of robots!

Terminator [DVD] [1985] [Region 1] [US Import] [NTSC]

Source: The Terminator, 1984/7IM

Building Bridges

In the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy the best place in the universe to eat is at Milliways.

Milliways, the Restaurant at the End of the Universe. A ...

Source: Pan Books

Milliways exists one hundred and seventy quintillion years in the future, just at the instant when the universe implodes and everything ends. One of the most appealing things about eating there (assuming you can time-travel) is that you don’t have to worry about the bill.

Invest a penny into a savings account today, and then let it accumulate for one hundred and seventy thousand million billion years … and through the magic of compound interest and a very long time horizon, you’re more than covered!

Billions of years seems a bit much even for the most long-term planning, in the non-fiction world, there are plenty of examples of how small amounts of money, invested over time, turn into something very significant.

This is a great London example:

The Tudor London Bridge: The Peter de ...

Source: London Bridge Museum & Educational Trust

For hundreds of years, London Bridge was the only crossing of the River Thames*. It had a total monopoly.

If you wanted to cross the bridge to get to the City, you paid a fee.
If you wanted to sail under the bridge, you paid a fee.
If you wanted to fish off the bridge (not a good idea in the Thames most of the time!) you paid a fee.
And if you owned one of the 140 shops/houses on the bridge you paid a fee.

And since 1209, those payments have been accumulating in the coffers of the City Bridge Foundation.
To give you an idea of what compounding can do, if you had invested £1 and made a 2% return every year for the last 816, you’d have £10 million today.
So, it comes as no surprise that despite having to rebuild the bridge a few times in the past 800 years, the foundation is now worth around £1.6 billion showing the power of solid financial planning, and believing in the long term.

Of course, it’s not all just pocket money; the foundation is now responsible for four other bridges in London-Tower, Southwark, Millennium and Blackfriars. In particular, it needs to have enough money on hand to rebuild any of them from scratch. This was very nearly put to the test in the year 2000 – Wobbly Millenium Bridge!

Source:7IM

Source: BBC, Millennium Bridge wobbling, June 2000

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Happy Christmas and may we wish you all a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year to you and your loved ones.

We are pleased to announce that Clear Financial Advice has opened a new office in Laurencekirk, Scotland.

This has resulted in two additional colleagues joining us on the 19th December, Rob Broad and his daughter Molly.

We look forward to expanding the business further during 2026 and beyond.
As the year comes to a close, we would like to take a moment to thank you for your continued support and trust. We very much appreciate the opportunity to work with you in the coming year.

It is looking like 2025 will be another positive year for portfolios and the investment landscape for 2026 is looking positive. We anticipate another steady, if unremarkable, year for global growth, while inflation should moderate giving Central Banks some headroom for further cuts in interest rates.

We are at the beginning of a huge transfer of wealth of between £5trn and £7trn of UK assets to the next generation. The freezing of the Inheritance Tax thresholds in the budget together with the already announced changes to Business Assets in April next year and Inheritance Tax in 2027 will both impact on the ability to pass assets to the next generation, efficiently.

Our expert and experienced financial planning team are here to help you make informed choices that bring peace of mind in this complex environment. Please do not hesitate to call if you, or, indeed, any of your friends or family who might be facing the same choices, would like to arrange a meeting with the team.

Three Kings 2025

It’s Christmas time. You know what that means….. Carols. Tinsel. Reindeer. Mince pies. Elf. And of course …
The consideration of ancient commodity prices!

Source: Elf

Seriously, the three OG Christmas presents are worth thinking about.

Source: Popular Science/7IM

If you were given an ounce of gold today, you’d be buzzing – an ounce is worth about £3,000. Whereas if you unwrap an ounce of myrrh or frankincense, you’re looking at maybe £3 …that’s if you have an idea what you’ve been given!

So did Caspar and Balthazar cheap out on their Secret Santa? Things change in 2,000 years!

Two millennia ago, frankincense and myrrh weren’t confusing, low-value items. Used for religious rites, perfumes and medicines by cultures across the Ancient World, they were, quite literally, worth their weight in gold. The Nabatean civilisation which controlled the “Incense Route” from Yemen to the rest of the world had enough spare cash to build this:

But, religious rites changed, cultivation improved, and transportation became smoother. This led to demand for frankincense and myrrh falling as supply increased, this makes them a poor gift today.

If you DID want to rival gold with something a bit left field this year, here are a few suggestions:

Original “mother bush” Da Hong Pao tea: £25,000 per ounce. Only six trees left in the world, with harvesting now banned!
Coral Snake Venom: £85,000 per ounce. Used in antivenom, but very hard to milk a snake.
Californium-252: £500 million per ounce. Important for nuclear reactors. Highly radioactive.

These are unlikely to be found on Amazon though …!

Clear Minds would like to thank all who nominated the charity for the Movement for Good 12 days of Giving, we have been lucky to receive a donation of £1,000. Thank you!

Happy Christmas!

Our mailing address is:

Clear Financial Advice

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Are you confident in your retirement?

According to new research by Nucleus, confidence in retirement amongst the public has recently hit an all-time low. The results showed that only 26% of adults felt that they would have enough money to live on for the rest of their lives. Planning for retirement can feel overwhelming, and you are not alone if you feel unsure about the future. Many people today worry about rising living costs, uncertain markets and whether their savings will last long enough. The good news: with the right guidance and a clear plan, confidence can be rebuilt.

Why People Feel Less Confident About Retirement

1. The cost of living keeps rising:
Every year, everyday expenses increase, reducing the buying power of your savings. Please see chart below which illustrates the impact of inflation on purchasing power:

2. Markets feel unpredictable:
Ups and downs in the stock market make many savers nervous about investing. The chart below illustrates emotional response to various stock market conditions:

3. People are living longer:
A longer life is great—but it means your money needs to last longer too. This chart illustrates how life expectancy has increased since the 1950’s:

4. Retirement products can be confusing:
Pensions, ISAs, annuities, drawdown… it’s hard to know what’s right for you.

5. It’s easy to put off financial decisions:
Life is busy, and retirement can feel far away—until suddenly it’s not!

How Clear Can help you feel more secure:

1. Turning worries into a clear plan –
Clear can help establish your goals and objectives and put a plan in place to give you the best chance of achieving them.
2. Showing your future with cashflow tools –
Cashflow forecasts help you see your financial future which will give you confidence that you remain on track and can make any changes necessary if required.
3. Helping you invest at a comfortable risk level –
Different people are comfortable with different levels of risk. We will help you understand what is suitable for you and ensure that the volatility of your investments is best suited to your individual preference and circumstances.
4. Making sure you don’t pay more tax than needed –
The right pension strategy along with a holistic approach to drawing income from your other investments, in the most tax efficient manner possible, can help your money last longer.
5. Keeping you on track, even when life changes –
Regular check-ins mean your plan stays up to date and any changes can be made as appropriate.

Conclusion
A more confident future Is possible.
Retirement planning doesn’t need to be stressful. With personalised advice and a clear roadmap, you can move from uncertainty to confidence—one step at a time.

Daren Fuller-Clear Senior Paraplanner

Football Vs FTSE

For the last 10 years, the UK stock market has not been the investment destination of choice.
Whether due to economic sluggishness, chaotic politics, or just the types of company available (“not tech”), since 2016 money has been flowing the wrong way (although 2025 may be different!)

Source: Calastone

However, there is one very visible part of Britain which seems to have gone from strength to strength during that time.

Football.

2 billion people follow the Premier League each season, with it contributing nearly £10 billion to the UK economy, as well as more than 100,000 jobs.
Then you have Hollywood stars getting involved in 3pm lower-league kick-offs, this means something must be going right …!

Source: Goal

Over half of the clubs in the Premier League have changed ownership in the past decade.
Although owning a football club isn’t JUST about the investment return, it is interesting to compare the “returns” of big football teams to the “returns” of the big stocks over the past ten years …
The chart below compares the top six companies in the FTSE 100, and the “big six” football clubs.*

Source: 7IM/Forbes/FactSet, company data since 31/12/2015 to 26/10/2025, market capitalisation of business. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

This shows a mixed bag of results. Some companies did ok, but in general you’d say it’s been better to be in British football than to be in British business … but, in investment terms, football teams are tiny!
Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea wouldn’t even make it into the FTSE 100, and although both the Manchester teams and Liverpool would, they’d be hanging around in the relegation zone, alongside companies like Howden Joinery, Autotrader and JD Sports!

* Bear in mind you can’t actually invest in football clubs (with the exception of Manchester United, who have some shares listed, weirdly, in New York), so this report just looked at the total size of the club in 2015 compared to now, as estimated by Forbes, and the same for the big companies, looking at size rather than share price returns (but they end up pretty similar).

Source:7IM@7am

Unintended consequences

Ever noticed a Wilkes’ Gob?
You may well have seen one at some point, particularly if you’ve spent any time in Leicestershire. You might have seen something similar if you’ve been to Brick Lane in Shoreditch (although you were probably looking at the beautiful selection of curries).
A Wilkes’ Gob is a type of brick. Specifically, a double-sized brick.

Source: Wikimedia Commons, Measham, Leicestershire, Wilkes’ Gob on the right.

In 1784, the British government needed cash to cover the cost of the American War of Independence. With new towns springing up as the Industrial Revolution took hold, MPs imposed a “brick tax” of 2 shillings and sixpence for every thousand bricks produced, resulting in BIGGER BRICKS. At least for fifteen years, until the government closed the loophole.
The Wilkes’ Gob is a great real-world example of why clever tax ideas often don’t produce sensible outcomes as people find other solutions.
A couple of other more … quirky … taxes in British history; and the resulting behaviour, which very rarely involved paying the tax are:
The Hat Tax was also introduced in 1784. The idea was that richer people have more hats, so would have to pay more tax. Quite aggressively, the punishment for forging hat-tax stamps was death! So, to deal with this people stopped wearing hats or started wearing these a new invention “caps” which were exempt!
The Window Tax (1696). In the 17^th century, most people thought the government had no business asking them about their income. So, when William III needed to raise money, he had to do it based on things his revenue officers could count. For example, windows. More windows = bigger house = more money = more tax. This resulted in bricked up windows across the country (which you can still see). Allegedly, the creation of the phrase “daylight robbery” to describe the tax.
But, most one of the most surprising tax fact: Until 1990, in the UK, a married woman’s tax rate was the same as her husband’s! When that rule changed, the UK workforce saw a significant increase in workers.
Tax isn’t about the numbers. It’s about the behaviour.
Source:7IM@7am

Consumer confidence wanes prior to the budget and after.

Headline CSI index slips to four- month low.
Renewed pessimism across households regarding future financial wellbeing.
Debt amassed to greatest degree since July.

Source: S&P Global

Clear Minds needs your help…….
The Benefact Group is donating £120,000 in total to 120 charities over 12 days. Please consider nominating Clear Minds by following the link below:
https://secure.campaigner.com/csb/Public/show/ggno-6omxd–lwxu-3x48i58

Don’t forget to get your orders in for Clear Minds Christmas cards by following the link below and help support the charity.

[email protected]

The charity is currently working with 19 therapists, helping 34 clients and has funded 1534 sessions.

Wishing you a very Happy Christmas and prosperous New Year!

Our mailing address is:

Clear Financial Advice

Suite J Castle House

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Banstead, Surrey SM7 3BT

United Kingdom

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The forthcoming budget on 26^th November

Rathbones has cautioned that introducing a wealth tax could trigger the withdrawal of more than £100 billion from the UK economy, amid growing speculation that the Chancellor may consider such a measure in the Autumn Budget.

According to Rathbones’ economic analysis, as Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure to close the fiscal gap, substantial amounts of wealth could be moved abroad or redirected into less productive assets. The firm estimates that implementing the tax could cost the Government around £600 million, with annual compliance and administration expenses for taxpayers exceeding £700 million.

Unlike inheritance tax, which is applied upon death, a wealth tax would require ongoing monitoring and valuation. Oliver Jones, Head of Asset Allocation at Rathbones Group, noted that a recurring wealth tax would be economically harmful, requiring annual assessments of complex, illiquid assets such as private businesses, art, and intellectual property. He warned that the process would be expensive to administer, difficult to enforce, and likely to create economic distortions.

Simon Bashorun, Head of Advice at Rathbones Private Office, added that recent changes to the non-dom regime have already slowed the arrival of high-net-worth individuals, and that a wealth tax could further accelerate the outflow of affluent residents. He said that many wealthy professionals are now exploring relocation to lower-tax jurisdictions such as Dubai or Singapore or avoiding the UK altogether.
Rathbones also highlighted that since over a quarter of UK billionaires—and an even greater proportion of the ultra-wealthy—are foreign nationals, their departure would significantly reduce any long-term revenue from a wealth tax.

The firm pointed to international experience as discouraging: Spain, Norway, and Switzerland are now among the few countries still applying wealth taxes, and their results have been modest. Since the 1990s, the number of advanced economies with such taxes has dropped from twelve to just three. Spain and Norway raise minimal revenue, far below expectations, while Switzerland’s success stems from a unique tax structure with comparatively low taxes on income, dividends, and inheritance.

As an alternative, Rathbones suggested that the UK consider reforms to property taxation or targeted adjustments to inheritance tax, which would be less disruptive and cheaper to implement. Jones concluded that while further inheritance-tax changes could be an option, increasing rates would be politically sensitive, given the widespread unpopularity of that tax.

Anna Griffiths – Clear Technical Manager

Too much information?

Warren Buffett and Donald Trump don’t agree on much, but both have staunch belief in the USA. Buffett famously advised investors to “never bet against America” and Trump, well … everyone has seen the hats!

Strangely though, they both agree that Europe does one thing better than the US. And, no, it’s not “winning Ryder Cups” .

Europe wins the Ryder Cup and reasserts ...

(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

It’s how European companies communicate to their shareholders. Or rather, how FREQUENTLY European companies communicate with their shareholders.

In the US, the regulator makes listed companies give quarterly updates on the health of the business, by filing something called a form 10-Q. There’s a fairly common view that this three-month cycle collapses the time-horizon for company management, making them short term, rather than focussing on building businesses that last.
Certainly, that’s what Warren Buffett thinks. And, as of a couple of weeks ago, so does Donald Trump.

A screenshot of a social media post

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: Truth Social

Whereas, in Europe, the requirement is to only publish data twice a year – and about half of companies do just that (47%). In the UK, semi-annual is the norm; 95% of UK businesses only give six monthly updates.
Cutting admin and reducing noise DOES feel like a win-win …but there is a flaw in this plan. Reports are coming out less often, but they’re getting much longer — in the U.S., the average annual report now tops 40,000 words.
Whereas for the FTSE 100, the average word count in the annual report was 150,000 words. HSBC’s offering came in at 340,000!

Putting that into context vs. Harry Potter books …

A person reading a book

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: 7IM/ https://www.theqca.com/news-insights/the-never-ending-story-of-annual-reports/

We know what Harry’s thinking in the pic above …“Accio executive summary!”

Investing PSY-chology

When Beyonce released the album Cowboy Carter last year, the impact was unpredicted. It wasn’t just because of the highest-grossing country music tour of all time, it was the cowboy boots! Sales went up by 24% the week the album was released.

Source: Cowboy Carter – Wikipedia

Although it probably wasn’t Beyonce’s intention to lead a ‘Ranch Revival’, but there’s no telling what the B-hive (Beyonce’s fan base) will do. Viral trends are very unpredictable!

Now anything can go viral including stock markets. There have been examples of this before. Sometimes a viral music trend collides with a viral stock market trend as an example we go to South Korea:
DI Corp is a South Korean business that manufactures testing equipment for semiconductors. DI Corp’s Chairman is Park Wan Ho. So far, so uninteresting…..but his son is Park Jae-Sang … a.k.a “PSY” – that PSY.

In 2012, PSY released “Gangnam Style” featuring his signature horse dance and become a global sensation, being the first video on YouTube to surpass 1billion views.

The impact on DI Corp – which is a totally unrelated business – was astonishing. Its stock price rose about 700% during the same period.

A graph showing a line graph

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

Just to be clear, PSY has no involvement in DI Corp.and DI Corp does not produce music videos. Also it’s not clear if investors thought that the musical success of PSY would somehow lead to the success of his Dad’s company.
Research has concluded that ‘investor recognition hypothesis’ was the reason for the market reaction. Essentially, retail investors buy and sell the stocks of companies that grabbed their attention.
In 2012, Psy grabbed everyone’s attention.
Now, let’s go and look up the names of CEOs’ children that match the lead characters of KPop: Demon Hunters etc.

UK construction output falls at slowest pace for three months

September data has indicated that the downturn in construction activity moderated again and was the least marked since June. This was helped by a slower reduction in new work. However, construction companies remain cautious about the outlook, with business optimism little-changed from August’s 32-month low.

A graph with a line and numbers

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Halloween is over, Guy Fawkes night is finished, and the next event is?
Yes- it’s never too early to think of Christmas.
Particularly Christmas cards!

Don’t forget to get your orders in for Clear Minds cards by emailing Sarah as below and help support the charity.

[email protected]

A group of cards with pictures of animals and ornaments

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Our mailing address is:

Clear Financial Advice

Suite J Castle House

Park Road

Banstead, Surrey SM7 3BT

United Kingdom

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Why it’s important not to make rash financial decisions based on Budget speculation.

Every November, the UK budget announcement attracts headlines and speculation about tax changes, spending plans, and their impact on the economy. While this anticipation is natural, making financial decisions based solely on speculation can be risky. History shows that speculation and reality often diverge, leading individuals who act prematurely to make avoidable mistakes.

1. Speculation vs. Reality: A Risky Gap

Forecasts ahead of a budget often overestimate or underestimate economic outcomes. For example, analysts’ predictions about GDP growth, tax policies, or spending priorities frequently diverge from reality. An example of this was last year’s budget when vast sums of money were withdrawn from pensions based on possible changes to the maximum amount of tax-free cash available. No changes happened and speculation is once again rife that this may happen in this year’s budget.

2. The Pitfalls of Short-Term Speculation

Average annual return – Speculation versus long term investment:
Speculative trading around budget announcements can tempt individuals to “time the market.” However, short-term speculation generally underperforms long-term investing strategies.

On average, long-term investments significantly outperform short-term speculation. The volatility of reacting to news cycles can erode returns, while patient investing allows compounding to work effectively.

3. The Value of Professional Financial Advice

One of the best defences against making rash financial moves is to seek professional financial advice. At Clear we help individuals look beyond short-term noise, focusing instead on long-term goals and tailored strategies.

Over a 15-year horizon, investors who seek financial advice can see considerably higher returns compared to those who do not. This highlights the importance of expert guidance, particularly in uncertain times.

Conclusion

While November’s budget will undoubtedly spark speculation, it’s crucial to avoid making hasty financial decisions based on uncertain predictions. History shows that speculation and reality rarely align perfectly, and short-term bets can harm long-term financial health. It is important to stick to your long-term plan and whilst media speculation can be worrying keeping focused and calm will help you achieve your long-term goals and objectives.

Constraints cause creativity

Disruptions to routine is really annoying, especially in the morning when you are half asleep.
The recent tube strike forced commuters to find alternative methods of travelling.

But psychologically, there CAN be big positives to being made to do something different…

In February 2014, there was another strike on the London Underground.

As this was pre-COVID, it meant:

Working from home wasn’t a thing.
Travel planning apps like Citymapper didn’t exist.

So, this meant people had to get into work, and they had to work it out for themselves! Lots of them discovered something different about the London Underground map – it’s great for subterranean work, but it’s terrible for moving around above ground!

Take, for example, the little section around St Paul’s.
On the tube map, Covent Garden and Farringdon look about the same distance away. In the real world, Covent Garden is nearly a mile further from St Paul’s than Farringdon.
Or look at Cannon Street; within touching distance of St Paul’s on the tube map, whereas Blackfriars is a distance away. Yet, they’re exactly the same distance from St Paul’s!

Source: TFL/7IM

Up to that point, a lot of people had moved to London, looked at a tube map, worked out their commute and then just put their head down every morning, and got on with their commute.
It took the disruption of a strike for some of them to realise that they had other choices. Some realised there were actually quicker routes to work like getting off a few stops earlier, or even using a different station. Others found that they preferred to walk for 15 minutes, rather than be on the tube for 5 minutes.
They were forced to experiment with a key part of their day. Interestingly 1 in 20 commuters changed their route permanently following the strike.
Economic theory suggests that anyone doing something regularly should make sure it’s done in the optimal way. Particularly something as draining as commuting!
And yet it took external events to force people to really think about their route.
This same psychology applies to finance.
People should do something… but they might need a bit of help to do so, whether that’s save more, spend less, or think more carefully about where their investments are.
And the number needing to change is probably a lot more than 1 in 20!

Rise or return

China has the second largest stock market in the world, after the United States.
And over the past decade, India has made its way steadily into the top five largest equity markets, just below Japan at the moment.
Both countries are experiencing economic growth at rates the West can only dream of … and both have, of course, HUGE populations.

Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=98756377

It’s being said that China and India are becoming important political and economic powers. But that does depend on your perspective as you could quite easily make the argument that the two Asian nations are returning to being global powers.
Angus Maddison, a British economist, spent his career digging into history to try and put things in a modern perspective, reconstructing the size and make-up of the global economy going back thousands of years.
Looking at his data, you could argue that the story of the last millennium was actually one of Asian dominance.

Source: https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-database-2010

China and India represented more than half of the world’s economy for 800 years out of the thousand! The last 200 years might merely have been a blip in the trend as technology supercharged the Western world.
The modern investment world came about during the 200-year blip. The MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) ACWI (All Country World Index) global stock index has just 3% allocated to China, and less than 2% to India.
Over a couple of centuries, better technology can overcome population differences. But if it gets back to a level playing field, weight of numbers comes back in.
China, today, has the same levels of internet use as the US 10 years ago, India is where China was just six years ago. Each country is producing 1.5 million odd engineers every year.
Whether a rise or a return, something’s happening.
Investment benchmarks should reflect the next century, not the old one …

Households exhibit renewed confidence in their financial outlook for the year-ahead

▪ Households upbeat about future financial climate for the first time in 11 months
▪ Current financial strain eases further
▪ Labour market sentiment nears all-time high

The first guerilla marketing

The advertising world has changed a great deal in the last 100 years. From newspapers and magazines to billboards and radio stings, to banner ads and sponsored TikToks. Grabbing the attention has always been the aim. To make you think of a product, or a service, or even a company when you are thinking of something completely different.
Just ask Dan and the Sterling Cooper gang.

There are of course modern equivalents of Don: sticking Red Bull athletes into space, having drumming gorillas sell chocolate, or almost all of Guinness’ TV ads in the 2000’s.j
But one of the favourite guerilla campaign pre-dates the Second World War – and you can still see it today!
In London in the 1920’s, there were strict rules on what businesses could and couldn’t do to advertise. The definitely were not allowed to put billboards along the River Thames – one of the busiest commercial and passenger areas in the world at the time.
But the Liebig Extract of Meat Company (LEMCO) found a loophole!
They were remodelling a Thames-side warehouse, no billboards or posters allowed. But what about windows?!
They put three windows into each side of their warehouse tower … in the shapes of a circle, a cross and a circle, and there suddenly was their key product – the OXO cube and it was the only riverside advertisement in London! And it’s still around a century later, that’s good advertising!
Naturally recent advertising has shifted dramatically online. 55% of global advertising spend (excluding China) has been captured by Meta, Amazon and Alphabet.
This chart from the US shows the shifts over time (and especially the recent rise of the digital world).

Source: Bureau for Labor Statistics

Algorithms along with the clever use of cookies, search tokens ad web optimism can target the consumer in a way that hoping they will look at a building never will, but who will be talking about ‘the best banner ads of the 2020s’ in one hundred years’ time?

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